United States Vice President JD Vance has written to Iran’s top security official in a bid to restart peace talks, even as President Donald Trump weighs a possible new round of strikes after next week’s midterm elections. The letter, reported by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, opens a quiet diplomatic track alongside a very public military build-up.
According to people familiar with the matter cited by the Journal, Vance sent the letter to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Rezaei previously served as the longest-serving commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and he is described in the reporting as one of the country’s most powerful hard-liners.
The outreach is testing whether Washington and Tehran can find enough common ground to keep a final strike order from being given. That question now sits at the centre of the eight-month-old war between the United States, Israel and Iran, a conflict that has already disrupted shipping, energy supplies and regional trade.
- JD Vance has written to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, to test whether peace talks can be revived.
- The letter was sent at President Donald Trump’s direction, and Trump said publicly that he approved of Vance making contact.
- No final decision on new strikes has been reported, and Trump has said he will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.
What the letter is — and what it is not
The letter was sent at Trump’s direction, one person familiar with the matter told the Journal. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday evening, Trump said he approved of Vance’s request to make contact. “They need help with medical supplies and various things,” Trump said. “He asked me what I thought. I said, ‘If you want to do that, that’s ok.'”
Importantly, the discussions that followed have not included specifics for a peace proposal, according to a person familiar with the matter. Instead, they have focused on a possible framework for negotiations — the basic shape of talks, rather than the terms of a deal.
That distinction matters, because the gap between the two sides remains wide. Rezaei said last week that Iran would not negotiate with Washington until specific core demands were met, the Journal reported. Tehran’s position on the nuclear issue, in particular, has not shifted in public, with a senior Iranian official saying this week that the country’s policy of showing no flexibility over the nuclear issue remained unchanged.
Some United States officials argue that talking to Iranian hard-liners, who have amassed power in Tehran since the United States and Israel killed regime leaders at the war’s outset, might yield a better diplomatic result than talking only to more moderate voices. The logic, as reported, is that any agreement would need the backing of the people who actually hold power in Tehran now.
Two tracks running at once
The diplomatic outreach is unfolding in parallel with military preparation. The United States has warned Gulf states to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign after the midterm elections, according to the Journal, citing people briefed on the conversations.
United States forces in the region have been restocking munitions, while bomber aircraft and fighter jets are preparing for possible strikes, officials familiar with the moves told the newspaper. A Patriot missile defence system is being brought in from Texas, troops have been moved away from bases where they were vulnerable, and an additional aircraft carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit are poised to join roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month, although some ships could rotate out.
The outreach is testing whether Washington and Tehran can find enough common ground to keep a final strike order from being given.
Trump has not decided whether to proceed, but people familiar with his thinking told the Journal that he is leaning towards a large post-election attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites. The White House said it would not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist, while adding that Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.
Trump has said he will not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3. Just last week, he said the administration was not talking with the Iranians and hinted at forthcoming strikes, saying: “We’re not negotiating with them, we are going to have something one way or another, it’ll happen soon.”
Israel has also prepared plans and targets for a new attack, the Journal reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to push for a resumption of strikes in hopes of degrading Iran’s strength and ultimately toppling the regime, according to the report.
- Vance’s letter went to Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander who now heads Iran’s top security body.
- The talks so far concern a framework for negotiations, not the specifics of a peace proposal.
- Trump has approved the contact, but has not made a final decision on new strikes.
- United States military preparations include more air defences, restocked munitions and additional naval forces in the region.
- Iran has warned it would respond to any attack with strikes on economic and civilian targets across the region.
Where mediation stands
Regional mediators have continued their own efforts. Qatar, along with Pakistan, has led mediation to end the war, and a Qatari draft proposal was presented on Sunday, according to an official briefed on the negotiations who is not from Iran. That official said the proposal sets a seven-day timeline addressing both Tehran’s and Washington’s concerns, laying out daily confidence-building steps, and that a response was expected by the end of the week.
Shortly afterwards, a senior Iranian official involved in the talks said Qatar had presented only “unacceptable ideas and not an offer”. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that Tehran remained in close contact with intermediaries to review ideas that could ensure the implementation of its own seven-day proposal aimed at ending the war, and that Iran continued to give diplomacy a chance to succeed.
The stakes of failure are visible in energy markets. European natural gas prices surged past 100 euros per megawatt-hour on Wednesday, their highest level since 2022, fuelled by growing concerns over the conflict and the urgency of rebuilding fuel stockpiles ahead of winter, according to market reporting cited on Thursday. Araghchi warned separately of a devastating economic impact from any new Israeli-led attack, pointing to the disruption already caused by the war.
Since the war erupted, it has severely disrupted energy shipments from Gulf countries after Iran began blockading the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas used to travel. Iran has restricted passage and regularly attacks vessels that attempt to cross without its authorisation, while the United States has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports, seeking to squeeze the country’s economy.
Iran has warned through public and private channels that it would respond to any attack with harsh strikes on economic and civilian targets across the region. Analysts quoted in the Journal’s reporting cautioned that further bombing could cause the regime to dig in and become more committed to its missile and nuclear programmes, rather than bringing it down.
What to Watch Next
The immediate question is whether Tehran responds to the Qatari draft by the end of the week, as the official briefed on the negotiations said was expected, and whether the framework discussions opened by Vance’s letter produce enough common ground to keep a final strike order from being given. The next question is what Trump decides after the November 3 midterm elections, given that he has said he will not attack before then but is reported to be leaning towards a large post-election attack on Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites. Finally, the mediation track led by Qatar and Pakistan, and Araghchi’s statement that Tehran remains in close contact with intermediaries over its own seven-day proposal, will show whether diplomacy still has room to move before military preparations turn into action.