Washington has warned that Iranian plots to assassinate United States government personnel and civilians have reached an advanced stage, according to a United States intelligence memo reported by major news outlets on October 24, triggering emergency evacuations and tighter travel warnings across the Middle East. The warning, described in reporting by the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and Reuters, has become the latest escalation in a war now approaching its ninth month.
Key Takeaways
- Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned in an October 23 memo that Iran had significantly ramped up efforts to target United States personnel, with lethal plots reaching what he called a significantly advanced stage.
- The United States has evacuated nonessential personnel and families from its mission in Saudi Arabia, cut staff at embassies in Lebanon, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and updated travel advisories for 13 Middle East countries.
- President Donald Trump has said there would be no strike on Iran on October 25, but that a decision is nearing between a deal with Tehran and renewed military action, possibly after the November 3 midterm elections.
According to the reports, Clayton sent the internal memo on October 23 to Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, and shared it with Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe. In the memo, Clayton said the United States had obtained intelligence through various channels showing that Iran had significantly ramped up attempts to target United States government personnel, and that Iran’s lethal assassination plots targeting American citizens had reached a significantly advanced stage in the Middle East and some other countries.
What the Intelligence Warning Says
Clayton also made clear, according to the reports, that the threat is not limited to a small number of individuals. The memo said an analysis of Iran’s attempts to target United States government officials in the Middle East and other regions clearly showed that it was aimed at far more people than those currently authorised to access the information, suggesting that any planned retaliation would be broad rather than narrow.
The warning follows earlier signs of a heightened threat. Earlier in October, the United States military, after detecting intelligence that Iran intended to attack United States aircraft and forces, urgently evacuated bombers that had been deployed to a British base, according to the reports. That move, like the latest evacuations, points to a security posture that has been tightening for weeks rather than days.
Evacuations and Travel Warnings Spread Across the Region
The warning has already changed the American footprint across the Middle East. The State Department, citing provocations by the pro-Iran Houthi rebels in Yemen, initially ordered the evacuation of nonessential personnel and families at the mission in Saudi Arabia on October 21, part of the wider drawdown of the United States mission in Saudi Arabia. Major outlets reported, however, that the assassination intelligence served as the decisive backdrop for the pullout.
A senior administration official said the United States is continuously assessing new information about the security environment regarding embassy staffing, adding that the threat of Houthi attacks and Iran’s plots targeting United States officials are being reflected in decisions to adjust staffing at missions in the region. Under the same measures, United States embassies in Lebanon, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar also began cutting staff, and on October 23 and 24 the State Department successively updated travel advisories for 13 Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iraq, strengthening measures to protect United States citizens.
The warning has already changed the American footprint across the Middle East.
- October 23 memo: Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warns Iran’s assassination plots against Americans have reached an advanced stage.
- Memo recipients: Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, shared with CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
- Saudi Arabia: nonessential personnel and families evacuated from the United States mission on October 21.
- Lebanon, Jordan, the UAE and Qatar: United States embassies also cutting staff.
- Travel advisories updated on October 23 and 24 for 13 Middle East countries, including Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iraq.
- Earlier in October: United States bombers evacuated from a British base after intelligence of a planned Iranian attack.
- Brent crude pushed above $117 a barrel intraday on October 23, according to the report, its first move above that level since April.
Trump Weighs a Deal or Renewed Strikes
President Donald Trump has said there would be no strike against Iran on October 25, but has also said a decision is nearing. In an interview broadcast on October 26, he said it was getting to be decision time on whether to make a deal with Tehran or resume attacks, saying: “I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?” He has suggested that United States strikes on Iran could resume after the November 3 midterm elections, and has sent additional forces, including a third aircraft carrier group, toward the Persian Gulf, according to the reports.
The stakes extend beyond the United States and Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Iran and its allies could attempt attacks to disrupt Israel’s election on Tuesday, October 27, the subject of Netanyahu’s warning about possible disruption of Israel’s election. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile fired toward Riyadh, a day after explosions rattled the capital, and the Houthis say they targeted the city’s airport. Energy markets have reacted to the tension: Brent crude has climbed to multi-month highs as the Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point of the crisis.
Iran Says Diplomacy Still Open, but Warns of Response
Tehran, for its part, has said messages are still being passed to Washington through intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Tehran has not closed the window of diplomacy, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said renewed military conflict would not change Iran’s policies. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan said Tehran had conveyed through Pakistani mediators that it was willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted its naval blockade, although an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps disputed that account, reporting that no new proposal had been made.
Araghchi also warned on social media that when Washington said it would “finish the job” last time, Iran only grew stronger, adding that if the United States wanted to try again, Iran had unfinished business of its own. United States Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz acknowledged to the Financial Times that a stalemate with Iran could continue a year after the war began, saying Washington hoped Iran would come to the negotiating table in a meaningful way before then.
What to Watch Next
What to watch next is whether Trump chooses a deal with Tehran or renewed military action, and whether that decision comes after the November 3 midterm elections as he has suggested; whether Israel’s October 27 election passes without the disruption Netanyahu has warned about; whether the Strait of Hormuz’s management changes as Tehran has said it will; whether the evacuations and travel advisories widen further across the region; and whether Brent crude stays elevated while the crisis continues. Until those questions are answered, the facts stand as reported: an advanced-stage warning, a shrinking American diplomatic footprint, and a decision on war or diplomacy that Washington says is nearing.