A Dead Heat in the Final Days
Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is deadlocked less than a week before Election Day, according to a new poll released on October 28, 2026. The Suffolk University/USA TODAY Ohio Network survey of likely voters showed former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, leading Senator Jon Husted, a Republican, by 47 per cent to 44 per cent.
That three-point gap sits inside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, which means the survey does not show a clear leader. In polling terms, the race is a statistical tie, and either candidate could be ahead when the final votes are counted.
The contest is one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country, and the new survey suggests it will come down to the final days of campaigning. The campaign has also drawn heavy spending, with reports that it could set new records for advertising spending in Ohio.
Key Takeaways
- Brown leads Husted 47 per cent to 44 per cent in the Suffolk University/USA TODAY Ohio Network poll released October 28, 2026.
- The three-point lead is within the poll’s 4.4-point margin of error, so the race is effectively tied.
- Independent voters, and the small share backing third-party candidates, could decide the outcome in the final days.
Why Independents Matter Most
Brown held a clear advantage with independent voters in the survey, winning them by 52 per cent to 24 per cent over Husted. That gap matters because independents are often the deciding group in a statewide race where the two major-party bases are already largely committed.
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, pointed to that group as the key to the result. He said: “In a general election anywhere, especially in Ohio, it’s really the independents who are going to determine the outcome.”
He added a warning for both campaigns: “But if a piece of those independents are voting third party, it’s going to be harder and harder to win those over.”
In a race this close, the final days are less about persuading the whole state than about turning out the voters who have already made up their minds.
In a race this close, the final days are less about persuading the whole state than about turning out the voters who have already made up their minds. Campaigns in the closing stretch therefore tend to focus on turnout, on reaching undecided voters, and on making sure supporters actually cast a ballot.
The Third-Party Factor
Libertarian Bill Redpath and independent Greg Levy, described as a socialist, each received support from 1.6 per cent of those polled. Together, their combined share of about 3 per cent could sway the outcome in a contest separated by only three points.
The survey period also saw claims of outside efforts to influence that small but potentially decisive slice of the electorate. According to Federal Election Commission filings cited in reporting on the poll, a Republican-backed organisation spent more than $2.2 million to boost Levy.
Separately, the Principled Patriots PAC, which Federal Election Commission records link to the Democratic nonprofit Rapid Resist Action, sent text messages promoting Redpath over Husted, according to a screenshot obtained by the USA TODAY Ohio Network Statehouse Bureau. Levy’s campaign called the effort “highly undemocratic.”
Neither of those spending or messaging efforts changes the poll result itself, but they underline how much attention is being paid to voters outside the two main campaigns in a race this tight.
What Other Polls Show
The Suffolk result is not the only recent snapshot of Ohio, and other surveys point in the same direction: a close race with no runaway leader. A separate poll sponsored by A Fight Worth Having, a super PAC, and conducted by its polling unit RedBox Research, showed Brown ahead 46.9 per cent to 44.2 per cent. That survey of 2,998 likely voters, taken October 20-23, has a margin of error of 4.6 points.
Other polling reported in recent days has shown Husted ahead, including a Rasmussen Reports survey putting him at 49 per cent to Brown’s 47 per cent, and an ActiVote survey released October 18 showing a Husted advantage of 50.2 per cent to 49.8 per cent. A Marist survey, by contrast, showed Brown ahead by four points.
The spread between firms is normal in a close race, and it is a reminder that a single poll is a snapshot, not a prediction. Different pollsters use different methods, samples and assumptions about who will vote, which is why their results can differ by several points even in the same week.
Ohio is not the only state where Senate polling is tight. In another closely watched Senate race in Maine, recent surveys have also shown a narrow margin, while exit polls in Israel’s election pointed to a hung parliament, showing how close contests can leave the final outcome to coalition talks or late-counted votes.
- Suffolk poll: Brown 47%, Husted 44%, margin of error ±4.4 points.
- Independents: Brown 52%, Husted 24%.
- Third-party candidates: Redpath 1.6%, Levy 1.6%.
- RedBox Research poll (October 20-23): Brown 46.9%, Husted 44.2%.
- Election Day for the Ohio Senate race is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The Final Campaign Push
The closing days are bringing high-profile campaigning to Ohio. President Donald Trump is set to hold a midterm rally at the Shoemaker Center on the Ohio University Chillicothe campus on Wednesday, his third campaign event in Ohio this month, for Husted and for Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
Brown and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton are holding a rally in Cincinnati at 5:30 pm the same day, setting up a direct contrast in the final week.
The governor’s race is also close. A survey by Echelon Insights for NetChoice, a tech industry trade group, put Ramaswamy at 47 per cent and Acton at 45 per cent. It was conducted October 16-23 among 508 likely voters and has a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points, meaning that race is also a statistical dead heat.
That same survey found 70 per cent support for State Issue 3, a proposed constitutional amendment requiring photo ID to vote, with 28 per cent opposed. Inflation and the cost of living topped voter concerns at 57 per cent, ahead of foreign policy at 24 per cent and healthcare costs at 21 per cent.
What to Watch Next
What to watch next is whether Brown can hold his advantage with independents, whether Husted can close the gap in the final days, and whether the combined third-party vote stays near 3 per cent or moves in the closing stretch. Further polls, the turnout operation of both campaigns, and the effect of the final rallies in Chillicothe and Cincinnati will all be watched closely before Election Day on November 3, 2026.