Israel’s October 27 election has produced a parliament in which the arithmetic points one way and the politics points another. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc finished first with 53 seats, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot won 48, and Arab-led parties hold a combined 19 — yet, as coalition talks loom, both main blocs have ruled out governing with those 19 seats. That refusal is what turns a close result into a deadlock.
With 120 seats in the Knesset and 61 needed for a majority, neither side can govern alone. The final results, published on Friday, October 30, confirmed Netanyahu’s bloc eight seats short of a majority and Eisenkot’s bloc 13 short. On paper, the opposition plus the Arab factions hold 67 seats — more than enough. In practice, the two Arab-led lists, Ra’am and the Joint List, are being treated by both camps as partners they will not work with, leaving no obvious majority at all.
Key Takeaways
- Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc 48, and Arab-led parties a combined 19 — but no bloc reaches the 61-seat majority.
- Netanyahu said on Friday that it is forbidden to form a government with the Arab parties, while Eisenkot has set conditions for any partner that the Arab lists have not been shown to meet.
- With final results going to President Isaac Herzog on November 4 and the new Knesset sworn in on November 10, weeks of bargaining — or another election — now lie ahead.
What Netanyahu said on Friday
On Friday, Netanyahu shared a compilation video of speeches and statements by Arab politicians and opposition lawmakers, including Ahmad Tibi, Iman Khatib-Yasin, Mansour Abbas, Sami Abu Shehadeh, Ofer Cassif, Yousef Jabareen and Ayman Odeh, and wrote: “It is forbidden to form a government with them.” The post restated a position he has held throughout the campaign: that his government will not rely on Arab-led parties.
The message came alongside renewed fraud allegations from Netanyahu’s Likud party, which has accused Arab political factions of widespread irregularities, including alleged voter bribery, intimidation and foreign funding. Arab party leaders have rejected those claims as a scare tactic aimed at delegitimising their showing, and Qatar has also rejected the claims, according to reports of the dispute. Separately, Central Elections Committee chief Justice Noam Sohlberg asked Shin Bet chief David Zini to investigate suspicions of foreign funding and improper influence in the election — a step covered in earlier reporting on the Shin Bet probe. The allegations remain allegations: they are claims made by one camp and disputed by the other, not findings of the election authorities.
It is forbidden to form a government with them.
Why the opposition cannot simply add 19
The opposition’s problem is the mirror image of Netanyahu’s. Eisenkot’s bloc, with 48 seats, would need 13 more to reach 61. Adding the Arab factions’ 19 would clear that bar comfortably. But Eisenkot has previously ruled out a minority government relying on Arab-led parties, and since the vote he has not set out any framework for working with them.
According to a Times of Israel report cited in coverage of the deadlock, Eisenkot has said he would only consider partnering with a party that recognises Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorses the values of the Declaration of Independence and commits to all Israelis performing national service. He has not said whether the Arab-led parties would meet those criteria. One analyst quoted by Al Jazeera put the obstacle bluntly: the issue is not a lack of pragmatism from Arab parties, but the refusal of Eisenkot and several of his partners to recognise Palestinian citizens of Israel — and the 19 representatives they elected — as legitimate political partners.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid, meanwhile, has claimed a political victory for the anti-Netanyahu camp, arguing that the prime minister has no viable route to forming a government. That claim rests on the same arithmetic: Netanyahu needs eight seats from somewhere, and the camps that could supply them have so far said no.
The other routes — and why they look narrow
If neither bloc will work with the Arab lists, the remaining routes are a cross-bloc deal or defections. A broad unity arrangement spanning the Netanyahu-Eisenkot divide has been discussed in coverage of the results, but the political differences between the camps make such a deal unlikely, and Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation arrangement.
Within Netanyahu’s own bloc, the picture is also shifting. Reports citing Haredi newspapers Hamodia and Hamashbiz said the Haredi parties want to be counted separately rather than as part of the Netanyahu bloc. Religious Zionism, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit, led by Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, are unlikely to break with Netanyahu, according to the same reporting. That leaves Netanyahu still short, with no partner obviously willing to cross over.
- 53 seats: Netanyahu’s bloc, including Likud’s 27 — eight short of a majority.
- 48 seats: Eisenkot’s opposition bloc, including Yashar’s 21 — 13 short of a majority.
- 19 seats: Ra’am and the Joint List combined — decisive on paper, excluded in practice by both camps.
- 77.9 per cent: voter turnout in the October 27 election, according to the Central Elections Committee.
What happens next
The formal calendar now takes over. The final official results will be submitted to President Isaac Herzog on November 4, after examinations of possible errors and inquiries. Herzog will then consult the factions and grant the government-forming mandate to the candidate judged most likely to build a coalition. The newly elected 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10, whether or not a government has been formed by then.
That timetable gives the party leaders days, not months, to test whether any combination can reach 61. As Chatham House fellow Yossi Mekelberg noted in coverage of the deadlock, Netanyahu could yet try to persuade Eisenkot and others to form a coalition with him. If no candidate can assemble a majority, the alternative is a prolonged negotiation — or, eventually, another election. Voters who turned out in large numbers on election day, October 27, may therefore face a longer wait for a government than the campaign suggested.
What to Watch Next
Watch who Herzog calls first after November 4, whether Eisenkot clarifies his conditions for any partner, and whether the Haredi parties’ wish to be counted separately changes the bloc arithmetic. Above all, watch whether either main bloc softens its refusal to work with the Arab lists — because, on the current numbers, no government can be formed without either those 19 seats or a deal across the deepest divide in Israeli politics.